The regular season has come to its conclusion, with teams fighting down to the last second to secure finals berths and following a couple of final week overtime thrillers (the first two of the season) the Final 6 is set with a bevy of teams that will rightfully see paths to pulling down the title. The Taranaki Airs and Wellington Saints come into the finals in impressive fashion and as the favorites, but even a slight wobble from the odds on favourites will open the door for upsets. All six teams are capable of pulling off a postseason win streak and grabbing the title but all teams can also quickly lose control of games if not at their best. Each game and opponent will present its own challenge with the teams that are able to problem solve on the fly giving themselves the best chance to win.
The Airs have done what was neigh unthinkable in the preseason and won their first league title since 1992. With a trio of imports carving it up on both sides of the ball with local talent supporting (and leading when needed) they are perhaps the most dangerous team in the league on the change of possession with their combination of speed and strength in the open court. Welcoming back Tai Wynyard and Richie Rodger from Commonwealth games duties will increase their depth and (with Wynyard) ability to defend the paint while securing the boards. The quality of the team in their absence speaks to their quality, but make no mistake they are better defensively with Wynyard patrolling the paint and imposing himself on opposition bigs and meeting drives at the rim.
The absence of two starters for an extended period may turn out to be the biggest blessing of the season, as it enabled Marcel Jones to gain extended minutes to find his rhythm offensively while adjusting to being a secondary option. His improved perimeter shooting of late opens space for driving lanes and post up opportunities while his competency on the glass increases the overall speed of the transition game. Interestingly the Airs have an effective field goal percentage of 52% as a team, which isn’t bad, but that bumps up to 65% against the Saints, one of the few teams with the horses to compete with them positionally.
Keys to a Title Run
Nelson were the most deliberate team in the Sal’s NBL this season, a product of their slower pace where their patience allowed for quality offense on one end and for the defense to set on the other. When set in the halfcourt their defense had been pesky, forcing turnovers at a higher rate than any other team in the league (17% forced turnover rate) with defensive player of the year Jarrod West and Alex Mcnaught harassing opposition guards while Trey Mourning, Sam Thompson and Most Improved Player Sam Dempster applying the physical backbone. To win the title they will need to find a greater level of offensive efficiency while squeezing extra production out of a thin bench. Coach of the year Mike Fitchett will have kept from emptying the deck in the Giants matchups in the last week of the season against the Saints and Airs, but they will have to be some very big hole cards to win the title.
Keys to a Title Run
The Nuggets used an epic overtime victory in front of a vocal Edgar Centre crowd to propel themselves to the third seed despite being down key imports Todd Withers and Keith Williams. An impressive feat for a team who has found it difficult to win when not at full strength, which unfortunately, has been the case more often than not. While a full roster isn't definite for the quarterfinals there has been development, as some of the unheralded depth stepped up to make an impact on winning. If Keith Williams can recover from illness and Todd Withers is able to overcome a nagging injury that needs more recovery than is available, they can be any teams equal. If not they will need to have Tray Boyd and Sam Timmins carry the load while overcoming the full weight of opponents scouting report focus. Nikau McCullough will need to find Timmins will need to find synchronicity with teammates and revised roles in a short amount of time, but both have shown an ability to do just that. They have played some of their better offensive basketball against the Hawks (52%efg) and will have the confidence of a 2-0 record against their opponents during the regular season, but confidence will only get them so far.
Keys to a Title Run
The Saints have been a high wire act for half the season and have been able to keep their balance with every step despite the pressure. With MVP Xavier Cooks leading the charge of an offence that has weapons at every level they have been an offensive juggernaut while finding another level defensively. Reggie Upshaw Jr. offers rebounding force and deep threat (41% 3pfg) and most importantly, allowed the rest of the starting lineup to slide down a position defensively and find more natural coverages to turn the screws defensively. Taane Samuel and Tom Vodanovich often have a mismatch to exploit and Jordan Ngatai has looked his healthiest and most comfortable in recent weeks.
Michael Smith has adapted well to his new role off the bench, and inserting his burst of speed can put added pressure on defences that are often at breaking point when he comes into the game. Their shot selection is textbook, either on the rim or from three, forcing teams to fully commit to defending both zones further stretching them to breaking point. A Vodanovich ejection in the last game out shows the feistiness of the side, which would perhaps be better shelved with the smallest margins of error being responsible for sending teams home, but even that didn’t seem to slow them down. And if that can’t, what will?
Keys to a Title Run
Auckland were two distinct teams this season, the team with Chris Johnson and the team that was wishing he would come back. With CJ back in the lineup they are once again the best version of themselves, controlling the paint behind the rim protection and rebounding of Rob Loe and Johnson then leaking out for easy buckets in transition behind the speed of Siler, Dontae Russo-Nance and Taki Fahrensohn. With Russo-Nance out for at least the quarterfinal, Braydon Iuli will need to fill his role to the best of his ability, but even if successful the youngest bench in the finals (I haven’t actually looked this up but these dudes look young) will need to step up into the spotlight should any rotation player find foul trouble.
Schneider was uber-efficient (7-9 from the field) in the last matchup with the Saints but he will most likely need to trade in some of that efficiency for volume to find enough points to keep pace with the Saints. At their early season best they looked like the best team in the competition and to walk away with the hardware they will need to rediscover that early season form.
Keys to a Title Run
The Hawks didn’t enjoy their full roster playing together until their final match of the season, despite that they were able to find enough rhythm to eke out the first overtime win of the year and punch their postseason ticket. The continuing of the do or die atmosphere in the finals should help the Hawks keep their focus and continue to get the two-way best out of the squad. Hyrum Harris will offer two-way work rate, providing tough scoring around the basket and in transition, enough shooting to force teams to defend him and tough physical defence. He has the ability to guard all positions, which gives coach Mick Downer the ability to go with big lineups. Two out of Jack Salt, Tajuan Agee and Jordan Hunt have worked quite well together in limited minutes and when playing together, but the shooting of Hunt may allow a super big lineup to be played if required. They are unlikely to go that way with the quality of perimeter players.
Jarrod Kenny is a more steady hand at the PG spot then Derone Raukawa but doesn’t offer the same level of shooting from three or off the dribble threat in the halfcourt or transition. With Raukawa still (at least from my eyes) recovering from injury, the offence is struggling to find its best form, but his soft touch will be on offer even if he is slightly diminished physically. Their offence finds another gear when Ethan Rusbatch finds his stroke from deep, who has shot 40 more threes than any of his teammates, despite shooting the worst percentage on the team of anyone with more than five attempts. If he is able to get hot the Hawks would look very different in the half court, with the tools to convert baskets from all levels and a physical defence setting the tone, they in spurts have looked like they could beat anyone when they take care of the ball. But despite all the ball handling on offer they were second worst in the league for turnover rate while playing at a mid-tier pace.
They come into the finals winning 3-of-4 which was needed after a four-game losing streak put them in a bit of a hole, but finishing sixth in the 4-way mini ladder has worked out well for them, with as favorable a matchup as they could ask for against the Nuggets on offer. They have a pathway to win the title if they are able to tap into their offensive skills to the best of their ability while playing while controlling the paint, but they will have to find a level of cohesion that has eluded them up to this point, but no time like the present.
Keys to a Title Run
Predictions (that I will refuse to be held to account for)
